Alemzewde Ayalew Anteneh
Hawass University, Ethiopia
Title: Mathematical Model and Analysis on the Impact of Aware- ness Campaign and Asymptomatic Human Immigrants in the Trans- mission of Covid-19
Biography
Biography: Alemzewde Ayalew Anteneh
Abstract
In this study, an autonomous type deterministic nonlinear math-
ematical model that explains the transmission dynamics of COVID-
19 is proposed and analyzed by considering awareness campaign be-
tween humans and infectives of COVID-19 asymptomatic human im-
migrants. Unlike some of other previous model studies about this dis-
ease, we have taken into account the impact of awareness campaign
between humans and infectives of COVID-19 asymptomatic human
immigrants on COVID-19 transmission. The existence and unique-
ness of model solutions are proved using the fundamental existence
and uniqueness theorem.
We also showed positivity and the invariant region of the model sys-
tem with initial conditions in a certain meaningful set. The model
exhibits two equilibria: disease (COVID-19) free and COVID-19 per-
sistent equilibrium points and also the basic reproduction number, R0
which is derived via the help of next generation approach. Our ana-
lytical analysis showed that disease-free equilibrium point is obtained
only in the absence of asymptomatic COVID-19 human immigrants
and disease (COVID-19) in the population. Moreover, local stabil-
ity of disease-free equilibrium point is verifed via the help of Jacobian
and Hurwitz criteria, and the global stability is verifed using Castillo-
Chavez and Song approach.
The disease-free equilibrium point is both locally and globally asymp-
totically stable whenever R0 < 1, so that disease dies out in the popu-
lation. If R0 > 1, then disease-free equilibrium point is unstable while
the endemic equilibrium point exists and stable, which implies the
disease persist and reinvasion will occur within a population. Further-
more, sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number, R0 with
respect to model parameters, is computed to identify the most in
uen-
tial parameters in transmission as well as in the control of COVID-19.
Finally, some numerical simulations are illustrated to verify the theo-
retical results of the model.